Climate Change Risk Underestimated

The National Academy of Sciences has updated a 2001 assessment on Climate Change and the risk that temperature changes cause, carried out by an Inter-governmental Panel.

The findings of the study are that the risk posed to mankind and the environment by even slight changes in average global temperatures is much higher than first believed.

"Today, we have to assume that the risks of negative impacts of climate change on humans and nature are larger than just a few years ago," said Hans-Martin Fussel, one of the authors of the report.

The new study found that coral reefs or endangered species could be put at risk and an increase in weather events such as cyclones, heat waves and droughts - conditions described as " reasons for concern" in the 2001 assessment, by just small changes in average global mean temperature.

The new conclusions were based in part on observations of impact already occurring due to global warming, a better understanding of the risks associated with rising mean temperatures and "growing evidence that even modest increases in GMT (global mean temperature) above levels circa 1990 could commit the climate system to the risk of very large impacts on multiple century time scales".

Other "reasons for concern" involved the way the impact of climate change is distributed, the aggregate damage caused and the risk of "large scale discontinuities" such as the deglaciation of the Greenland ice sheets.

"Compared with results reported in the (2001 assessment), smaller increases in GMT (global mean temperatures) are now estimated to lead to significant or substantial consequences in the framework of the five 'reasons for concern,'" the study said.

"If the associated risks are larger, the necessity is also larger to reduce the greenhouse gases emissions and to support affected regions to cope with the unavoidable consequences of climate change," Fussel said in a statement.

LDV In Danger Of Closure

Birmingham's LDV plant, which supports up to 7,000 jobs, has been identified by the UNITE Union as being in danger of closing down.

LDV, owned by Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska's firm Gaz, has approached the government about funding for a management buy-out. This request puts Business Secretary Peter Mandelson in a rather difficult position as it was on his Corfu yacht that Mandelson was entertained last summer along with shadow chancellor George Osborne.

The Department for Business (BERR) confirmed it met with LDV bosses on Thursday to discuss a possible bridging loan whislt it applies for £25M from the European Investment Bank.

BERR said it supported the firm's EIB application but said it would not use taxpayer money to keep the company alive.

Gaz chairman Erik Eberhardson said: "Unfortunately since the company is not producing, it is not making enough revenue to cover its costs.

"It is literally running out of cash as we speak."

LDV currently supports 850 UK jobs in Washwood Heath, Birmingham at its factory, 1,200 in its dealer network and 5,000 in supply companies.

LDV has invested tens of millions of pounds in the factory in recent years, creating 200 new jobs, but the global downturn has meant that it had to cut 10% of its workforce in November and halt production a month later.

Amateur Radio's Contribution To Disaster Relief

April 18th is World Amateur Radio Day. It celebrates the formation of the International Amateur Radio Union on that day in 1925. In 2009, the theme of World Amateur Radio Day is "Amateur Radio: Your Resource in Disaster and Emergency Communication."

How Does Amateur Radio Aid Disaster Relief?

In fact, Amateur Radio has contributed to disaster relief efforts and first emergency response since its very beginnings, nearly 100 years ago. The Amateur Radio Service is comprised of a large number of skilled operators in various local, national, regional and global infrastructure independent networks. They have the ability to establish communication with very limited means even under the most difficult circumstances.

When disasters occur in regions that do not have very good coverage by public networks - or when existing communication networks are destroyed, Amateur Radio operators provide communications for the rescuers, relief workers and their organisations.

The tools available to Amateur Radio operators range from battery operated Morse code stations, satellites to local VHF networks or shortwave networks that span the globe.

Effective, early disaster relief can only occur with the work of volunteers in all fields, communications being of vital importance.

Climate Change Chocolate Shortage Warning

Bad news .... climate change may cause a chocolate shortage! Forget the ice shelf disappearing, this is much more important!

It is well known that chocolate triggers natural anti depressants such as serotonin, has been linked to lowered blood pressure (in the short term), contains antioxidants, not to mention vitamins B,D and E. The fact that it is also high in fat, sugar and calories deters not a single soul from eating it.

Now however, according to John Mayson, Director of the Nature Conservation Research Council, within the next 20 years chocolate could become the preserve of the wealthy. Bad news indeed.

The full story of why can be found here , but to put it simply the cocoa bean grows in the Amazon basin naturally and has been harvested out to other tropical areas by man. It is extremely hard on the soil, requiring a rich environment, high humidity and rainfall over many seasons to produce the cocao pod.

Being greedy humans, to increase production we produced a hybrid and farmed the soil until it could no longer produce any crops, then moved on to the next bit - clearing it of trees etc and disrupting the weather patterns.

Despite efforts to encourage sustainable farming practices the ecosystems are being damaged, thereby threatening future crops of cocao pods.

Obviously Mars Inc. and Cadbury's hope solutions will be found, but less optimistic environmentalists say enjoy those valentine chocolates, because your grandchildren may never see such crazy extravagant gift ideas.

Invest in Poorer Nations to Avoid Global Poverty

The World Bank's chief economist is encouraging developed countries to invest in poorer nations as doing so will enable them to one day become customers.

Justin Yifu Lin said that the global financial crisis should have a global solution, arguing that if low-income countries get investments in electric power, highways and other fundamentals, they'll escape global poverty, grow in a sustainable way and eventually buy exports from countries such as the UK and US.

This economic crisis is the worst one since the Depression, and if it goes on for a long time it will deprive developing countries of the chance to get out of poverty, Lin said. He said that his plan would shorten the recovery time and "pave the ground for long-term, inclusive and sustainable growth for all."

Lin said that the USA, Europe, Japan and "reserve-rich" countries such as China and the oil-exporting nations should invest $2 trillion over the next five years to help low-income countries develop. The fund wouldn't be a grant but rather a loan, he said.

Global investments in low-income countries have a high rate of return because they do more to promote growth, Lin said.

It is already documented that climate change affects the most vulnerable people on the globe the worst so perhaps a plan such as the one proposed by Lin could help not only developing countries to break out of poverty, but aid the global recovery of this current depression, cited as being the worst for 100 years.

The Link Between Climate Change and Recession

I came across this interesting article in the Times online today by the CEO of Oxfam, Barbara Stocking. She has been attending the World Economic Forum this week in Davos. She has the following to say about the link between climate change and the recession:-

You may wonder what an organisation like Oxfam that works on aid and development is doing talking about climate change, traditionally the preserve of green groups. The answer is twofold: people and poverty. Climate change is hitting poor people hardest and blocking their efforts to get out of poverty.

It is the massive disasters that grab headlines –floods, hurricanes, droughts - and these have been more frequent or more intense over last 20 years, almost certainly as a result of climate change. But it’s also the every day effects that concern me – because they are more insidious and make life even more difficult for people who already struggling to get by.

She concludes:-

I worry, but I also hope: that this crisis will be an opportunity, for us to embrace a new model of growth, which is more equitable and more inclusive, and which places a realistic value on the environment and the future we all need to share. There have been some glimmers of enlightenment among the elite on the snow-covered streets of Davos this week, and I know that elsewhere too people are waking up to the potential for us to take a new road out of this mess. This year will be critical for climate change – with the big UN meeting in December to agree a new global deal. At Oxfam we will be doing all we can to ensure that our leaders reach a fair and effective deal as part of their efforts to escape the current economic crisis.