Is The Economy On The Mend?

Stephanie Flanders' latest blog post eloquently sets out the current state of the economy as well as future forecasts.

The UK's GDP has shrunk by 5.6% over the last 12 months - the worst decline since records began in 1955. The first estimate for the second quarter also shows a 0.8% drop, although there was a wide range of figures. This is also only a first estimate, it is subject to revision. The Office of National Statistics is not up to date on some sectors including the service and productions sectors.

The second set of figures for the second quarter is due out on the 28th August, but this could also be much later as it takes up to 2 years for the ONS to analyse all of the data and produce the GDP figure. Research by economists at Goldman Sachs has found that the ONS tends to err on the side of caution, that is underestimating GDP, as do other Eurozone countries. The Americans, however are more optimistic in that they tend to over estimate.

This all boils down to the fact that no recovery is in sight yet for the UK. It is possible it could start to turn around in the third quarter, but it is unlikely.

Global Warming Could Spark War

According to Mother Nature Network, global warming could be the catalyst to start war in at least 7 regions.

Regions which are already experiencing tense relations between factions could be pushed over the edge into war as sparse resources become even more rare due to global warming. Changing weather patterns are worsening conditions in those parts of the world - droughts and floods means that clean water supplies are drying up, more desertification is taking place and refugees possibly having to relocate.Relocating peoples may then be oppressed by military organisations or aggressive local populations.

The upshot of this unrest and social tension could very well be armed conflict. The 7 regions most at risk from this are thought to be Southern Africa, Bangladesh, Western China, Kashmir, Sahel Region (Africa), Central Asia, Lake Victoria (Africa)

Weekend Trip to Cornwall

We had a trip down to Cornwall last weekend as it was the M-in-Law's birthday recently.

Now, its always a good thing to visit the folks, but she's not exactly up to date with technology. She doesn't own a computer and we don't have a netbook to take down with us which means that anything which involves the internet is out. She has bought a new bed recently which is much more comfortable than the old one, just a tad on the hard side, but at least it was possible to get some sleep.

For her birthday treat we took her to Gweek Seal Sanctuary. The car parking is a bit interesting as its on the side of a hill, some people may have a spot of bother getting in and out of their car, indeed some may have problems parking their car! The disabled bit is on the flat though. I would also advise that if you haven't got a season ticket to book online and see what discounts are available as for 2 adults and 1 OAP with a brochure, entrance cost us just over £40.

The sanctuary was quite cool though, its not huge, but there is enough to keep you amused for a few hours. As well as seals, there were sea lions, otters and, somewhat oddly, an enclosure with a couple of goats, sheep and ponies. There is a reasonable amount of ground to cover, and whilst wheelchairs would be able to get to most of it, some of the trails are unsuitable. It does mention this at the entrance also.

All in all a most enjoyable day out. The seals were fun to watch, but our favourites were the otters. They do a great job rescuing, rehabilitating and releasing seals back to the wild.

Summer Car Hire Codes

As more people are 'staycationing' this year, camping holidays are seeing a revival in popularity.

If you are bucking the trend and going abroad this year, I have found a couple of promotional codes from Easycar. The codes run out at midnight tomorrow. so you'll need to be quick. To get 30% off the Excess Waiver (zero risk option), enter 'waiver' and to get €20 off car hire in Italy enter 'dolcevita'. The codes are valid for 7 day car hire rentals, for more details go the the Easycar website.

There is some unease about the availability of hire cars this summer. Car hire companies have cut stocks drastically to save money so more than ever, it is advisable to book well in advance to avoid disappointment.

Hiring a car is a great way to see the sights of a country at your own pace and its not as expensive as you might think.

Investigating The Link Between Climate Change and Poverty

Oxfam's latest report "Suffering the Science: Climate Change, People and Poverty” describes how global warming is already affecting people in poor communities much more severely than those in developed regions.

These poor communities in the undeveloped world typically battle to gain access to food and water and have issues with health and security. The report warns, “without immediate action 50 years of development gains in poor countries will be permanently lost.”

The report also recognises the effect of unpredictable weather patterns on farmers. They often lose multiple crops due to floods or drought and Oxfam calls for the developed world to fund more aid programs as well as adopting tougher climate policies.

I find that popping along to a charity shop makes me feel pleased with myself for doing just that little bit to help. I find it quite fun looking through the second hand books and second hand clothes as well as the odd nic nacs that invariably end up there. Second hand clothes from charity shops are great for cheesy nights out and fancy dress parties. Sometimes there is the odd gem if you're not fussy about buying clothes second hand.

The GSX 1400 Goes To Essex

This weekend we took the gsx1400 on is first 'tour'. I use the word loosely as it was really just an excuse to see the family in Essex (300 miles away) and try out the hard luggage.

The main problem we found was that with the luggage, the bike was nearly as wide as a car, which meant filtering 2 up safely would be darn near impossible. This was a shame as filtering would have come in handy on the A303 as it was solid traffic for 10 miles and put us 1.5hrs behind schedule, getting on the M25 at 1530, just in time for rush hour. Much swearing ensued.

The bike itself was brilliant, through all the stopping and starting it didn't miss a beat or overheat, it just took it all in its stride. The same could not be said for the riders unfortunately. Slow riding, especially 2 up stop/start is just about the hardest thing to do - your clutch hand is knackered and you've got to keep the bike balanced and control the speed with the back brake. Not fun for the driver and very tiring, so we had to stop more often so he could have a break and we both needed to stretch.

Anyway, we got there after a record 8.5hrs and the sat nav worked well, just 1 little hiccup when after our first pit stop it decided it wanted to go home, but that was easily sorted and only took us out of our way for a couple of miles. I'm sure we would have gone wrong without it in the back and beyond of Essex, it gives a lot of security knowing for sure that you are on the right road as well as counting down the last miles of the trip.

The trip back was better, just some Sunday lunchtime traffic on the M25 to contend with, smooth sailing apart from that. It took 6.5hrs to get home, but this was because we stopped for at least an hour for lunch and our other stops were quite leisurely. Once again the GSX was perfectly behaved, we are really pleased with it.

I have suggested that for future small trips, we take the soft luggage, tank bag and top box so we can filter through traffic easier and just use the panniers for longer journeys.